The trends of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections have left everyone astonished. The BJP, which campaigned with the slogan “400 Plus,” is struggling to secure a majority on its own. Even the entire NDA coalition is barely crossing the 300-seat mark. These surprising results have brought joy to the I.N.D.I.A. alliance, which, despite being stalled at 225 seats, sees a potential path to power. How can the Congress Party leverage its position to turn the power equation in its favor?
Current Standing of the I.N.D.I.A. Alliance
With trends available for all 543 Lok Sabha seats, the I.N.D.I.A. alliance has given the BJP-led NDA a tough fight. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress managed to win only 52 seats, but this time it is leading in over 90 constituencies. Overall, the I.N.D.I.A. alliance is leading in 232 seats.
BJP in Trouble
The current trends have put the BJP in a tough spot. The NDA is leading in around 290 seats, with the BJP alone accounting for 240 of those. This means that despite Prime Minister Modi’s strong campaign, the BJP is unable to secure a majority on its own and will have to rely on its allies to form a government. This dependency could limit the party’s ability to make independent decisions.
Can Congress Form the Government?
Although the BJP has not secured a majority, the NDA has a clear mandate and is ready to form the government for a third consecutive term. However, the key question is whether the Congress, which has seen a resurgence in 2024, can form the government. A closer look at the political equations suggests it might be possible.
The Path to a Congress-Led Government
To form a central government, Congress needs 272 seats. With the current trends showing it leading in 225 seats, it falls short by 47 seats. Here’s how Congress can bridge this gap:
- Alliances and Independents: Congress, under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, would need to seek support from other political parties and independents who are leading in about 20 seats.
- Regional Parties: If Congress can secure the backing of the Shiv Sena Shinde faction (7 seats) and NCP Ajit Pawar faction (1 seat) in Maharashtra, it would gain 8 more seats.
- JD(U) in Bihar: Bringing JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar into their fold could add another 15 seats from Bihar.
- TMC Support: Despite earlier disagreements, if Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, which is leading in 31 seats, decides to support Congress, the coalition would surpass the required majority.
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